National Intelligence Council releases assessment of implications of world health to U.S. national interests

From the NIC's introduction:

"Strategic Implications of Global Health" responds to a request from the Undersecretary of State for Democratization and Global Affairs for an intelligence assessment on the connections between health and U.S .national interests. This study builds on a 2000 NIE, "The Global Infectious Disease Threat and its Implications for the United States," a pioneering Intelligence Community effort to identify infectious disease as an intelligence issue. This study diverges from that paper, however, in that it:

• Expands the field of inquiry to fully encompass all aspects of global health—including maternal mortality, malnutrition, chronic diseases and other relevant non-infectious health issues. While these may not represent direct threats to US interests in the way that acute infections do, these health determinants can also have wide-ranging—if more slow-moving and subtle—impacts on the global scene.
• Places a greater focus on the strategic impacts of global health, with minimal discussion of disease pathologies. This discussion is based in part on case studies of countries in the developing, communist, and post-communist worlds (see annex, p. 37) that illustrate the nexus between health and other strategic issues.

Many of the phenomena examined herein are occurring now, but are frequently unrecognized or unacknowledged outside the health community. Current WHO data indicate that three-quarters of all deaths by 2030 will be due to non-communicable factors (e.g., cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and traffic accidents), while deaths due to major infections such as HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria will decline sharply even in the poorest countries.

This paper is limited to examination of naturally occurring health phenomena, leaving the issues of bioterrorism and biowarfare for separate study.

• ^{Download the study}

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